So long as Apple is in control this may not happen. To be more precise, so long as you need to sync your device to a computer to get it up and running this can’t happen.
I used the family computer to transfer everything from my old iPod to my new iPod and I haven’t needed a computer since. I charge my iPod via my PS3 and have a USB wall charger on its way from Amazon.
My iPod holds everything I have. I don’t even use a phone anymore because I don’t need to, even though my iPod touch cannot, technically, make phone calls. When my iPod can do everything a computer can do why do I need a computer?
Media
My entire digital media library is on my iPod. I download everything from iTunes. Music, TV, films and podcasts are all available to download directly to my iPod. Best of all I skip the computer side of things because there is no need to download it to my computer and then wait for it to sync to my iPod. So a computer isn’t needed so long as what I want is available on iTunes, which it often is.
Web Browsing
The iPod touch has the best browsing experience I have ever seen on a portable device. It’s fast, simple and with more and more websites having mobile versions it is more often than not a more concise way of getting what you want from the Internet. Not having flash is a deterrent for most people although HTML5 is fast becoming the norm as websites rush to make their content available to the ever-growing mobile market. The web browsing on an iPod touch still doesn’t offer as much as a dedicated computer can. Maybe in the next year or two tablet PCs can do.
Programs
The closest thing the iPod touch has to offer in terms of dedicated programs is the app store. Sure the app store often has stripped down versions of programs like Photoshop and iMovie but unless you are doing very intense work then why is that computer version needed? The Motorola Atrix will be releasing sometime in 2011 and that is a computer in your pocket. It is an Android dual core phone that can be docked so it becomes a PC should you really need that. This is the future of the home computer. I am a Media student and although I do need the iMacs that we use for video editing I would wager that I could get by with just my iPod, the Word processor on it and the stripped down iMovie.
Wrap Up
I do not need a computer, as shown above. I am not saying that everybody is the same as me and has the same needs as me. I think that somebody somewhere will, for the next couple of years, need a dedicated computer. As more and more phones and tablets are released that can match computers I think we will see people opt for this option. Imagine, in 2011 we have dual core phones what will we see in 2012, 2013 or 2014? Heck even the NGP has quad core processors, in 2011. We’re rapidly moving into the future of Star Trek type technology and I for one am excited.
I think our biggest disconnect is in the definition of a PC. A PC is about functionality not about form factor. Therefore, as far as I’m concerned my iPad is a PC. Not everything that has a microprocessor is a PC but as more and more capability is added that is what they become.
Also, you mention downloading movies and TV shows direct from iTunes. What are you going to do when your iPod is full? Apple does not allow re-downloads of content so unless you are truly done with it you will have to back it up somewhere (hint, hint). I don’t have a single device today besides my PCs, including my 120GB Zune player, that will hold all my audio files, let alone my video.
I appreciate that you are looking forward. Undoubtedly computing power will be available in smaller and smaller form factors. But the change in the form factor doesn’t mean the PC is going away, just that it is being transformed. One of the biggest barriers is information storage, which will increasingly be in the cloud but we are a long way (5-10 years) from that being the norm. Until then the need to store gigabytes (for some terabytes) of information will require a more traditional box PC.
The article is based on my experiences and I have yet to fill my 32gb iPod though I do have a hard drive filled with stuff from before my computer died.
My definition of a computer is just of a traditional home PC, laptop or netbook. The point of my article was to say that these tablets and iPods can replace them and can become the next step in the evolution of the computer. Though they are not yet computers. A Motorola Atrix for example could be the next step in computers and therefore it could replace the traditional computer.
I think the thing we have gotten confused about is how I said that computers would disappear. I didn’t mean that we wouldn’t need them anymore. I just meant that a computer that someone may get in the future would be a tablet PC or even a phone. I meant that it would transform. Not go away.
Also, from what I understand about it the Apple time capsule is a good way for me to back up my iPod without the need for a computer 😉
It is a shame that sony took out the other OS feature for the PS3. One can argue that is a computer in itself.
I asked cookie to write this because I found it interesting how he was able to just use a mobile device(restricted to wifi nonetheless) I for one don’t think I could do that with just an iPod touch(granted I have to manage a website, record, and edit a podcast too) I think computers as we know them are slowly fading away and the future is going to be devices like the cell phones, tablets, and everything in between. It will still take years and price cuts before people would even think of replacing their computers with these devices because its easier to use a computer for lots of tasks than a mobile device.Great article though.